When historian Paul Kennedy published The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in 1987, his sweeping analysis of imperial decline—spanning 1500 to 1980—arrived at a moment of American triumphalism. The U.S. stood ascendant as its Cold War rival, the USSR, crumbled. On December 25, 1991, Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, the Soviet flag was lowered over the Kremlin for the last time, and by year’s end, the USSR ceased to exist. Russia inherited its UN Security Council seat, but the “unipolar moment” had begun.
Yet Kennedy’s seminal work—still taught in international relations courses—warned of America’s looming vulnerabilities. He foresaw the rise of challengers, particularly China, and the risks of imperial overstretch. Today, his thesis reads like prophecy.
The Erosion of American Primacy
China’s meteoric rise, accelerated in the post-Trump era, has exposed the fragility of U.S. dominance. Once-unthinkable scenes—like Ukraine’s president publicly sparring with an American leader in the Oval Office—now symbolize diminished U.S. authority. Trump’s transactional foreign policy ruptured alliances: tariff wars alienated trade partners, while his rejection of NATO’s collective defense principle (“We are not responsible for their security”) left allies scrambling for alternatives. The result? A global arms race and emboldened adversaries.
Russia invaded Ukraine with impunity. Israel escalated violence in Palestine despite Trump’s self-proclaimed “peacemaker” role. Even small nations like Chad imposed reciprocal travel bans on U.S. citizens. The message was clear: American power no longer commanded automatic respect.
The Multipolar Future
A new world order is emerging—one where power derives not from battleships but from drones, cyber capabilities, and orbital dominance. India’s air combat losses to technologically superior foes underscore this shift: future wars will be won by AI, not infantry. Quantum computing and autonomous weapons could allow small states to punch above their weight, while China’s new Hong Kong-based mediation
body challenges the International Court of Justice’s hegemony.
The Human Cost of Transition
Amid this upheaval, humanity stands at a crossroads. Golden-domed missile shields rise while poverty spreads. Fifth-generation warfare merges with unregulated social media, breeding chaos. The dawn of “humanless” battlefields—where robots decide who lives or dies—threatens to erase the very ideals that once underpinned global stability.
Kennedy warned of these cracks in the foundations of power. Yet as the U.S. clings to outdated paradigms, the world moves on. The question is no longer whether the rules will change, but who will write them—and what values they will enshrine.
