The Offensive Against Iran as a Link in the Containment of China: The Bully’s Move on a Board He No Longer Controls

By Claudia Aranda

The ongoing aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran cannot be interpreted solely through the lens of regional conflict or disputes over Iran’s nuclear program. Its root lies in a geostrategic logic of structural containment: to prevent, indirectly, the consolidation of a multipolar order led by the People’s Republic of China.

The thesis proposed here is clear: the collapse of Iran, its symbolic occupation or transformation into a satellite serving U.S. interests, would represent one of the gravest defeats for China’s structural autonomy project in Asia and Eurasia. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), energy access independence, logistical diversification, diplomatic sovereignty, and the rebalancing of the international financial system depend, to a significant degree, on the stability of Iran as an ally.

1. The Chessboard of Distractions: When the Bully Looks Away from the Real Game

Iran is not the final target of the Western strategy, but it is one of the critical pieces of this global chessboard. The power bloc composed of the United States, its military, financial and technological allies, and the State of Israel as a primary operational enclave, has defined the structural rise of China as the main threat. The threat is not ideological but systemic. China proposes a different model of international engagement: long-term planning, technological autonomy, continental logistical integration, and a diplomatic approach not subordinated to Western liberal logics. The BRI embodies this vision—one that challenges the hegemonic paradigm with the simple logic of interdependence and mutual benefit.

In this framework, Israel operates as a node connecting Western geostrategic interests with regional control structures in West Asia. Iran’s stability disrupts that architecture: it enables China to access the Mediterranean without Western mediation, consolidate sovereign energy alliances, and project influence along a corridor stretching from Beijing to Istanbul via Tehran. It is a thorn in the side of hegemony, and thorns, as we know, must be removed.

President Donald Trump’s recent authorization of U.S. airstrikes on Iran on June 22, 2025, following pressure from Israel and its lobbying axis in the U.S., dramatically reshaped global strategic priorities. This decision, which saw Trump risking impeachment by engaging without Congressional approval and proclaiming himself a “winner,” exemplifies how warfare and cutting-edge armament become tools of distraction. As U.S. military assets, diplomatic capacity, and strategic focus are redirected toward immediate challenges in the Middle East, China gains valuable room to maneuver and strengthen its position in Asia without direct confrontation. History, it seems, has a perverse sense of humor: while the neighborhood bully throws punches in a secondary scuffle, the true contender advances silently and with calculation.

Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil traffic passes—has forced the U.S. to redeploy naval assets away from Asian waters, creating strategic vacuums that China can exploit to consolidate its regional position. China, in turn, has condemned these attacks as a serious violation of international law, criticizing the U.S. as an agitator that “plays barely any constructive role in easing regional conflicts but excels in destructive actions.” This rhetoric not only politically isolates the U.S. but reinforces China’s image as a responsible global actor—even while it strategically benefits from America’s distraction. This is diplomacy with a wink—a subtle reminder that one state’s instability may be another’s opportunity.

2. The Dragon’s Metamorphosis: From the World’s Factory to the Technological and Economic Vanguard

China is no longer the world’s cheap factory. Its strength no longer lies in labor costs but in technological density, production scale, automation, logistical efficiency, and applied innovation—a productive ecosystem encompassing all competitive variables. Companies like Apple, BYD, or Tesla manufacture in China not for wage savings but because no other country matches China’s industrial integration. It’s the difference between being a workshop and being the architect of global production—a transformation that has made China the world’s leading economic power by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), a fact often omitted from headlines but central to understanding its true might.

Still, China has a structural vulnerability: 80% of its trade and around 45% of its energy transit via maritime routes controlled or monitored by the U.S. and its allies. The Strait of Malacca, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Hormuz are high-risk chokepoints. It is the Achilles’ heel of an emerging maritime power—a dependency Beijing seeks to mitigate with the cunning of an ancient strategist.

In this context, the Belt and Road Initiative—modeled after the legendary Silk Road—is not an imperial expansion plan, but a sovereign survival strategy. Though they carry less volume, land routes allow China to transport high-value goods critical to supply chains in half the time and with greater territorial control. Iran is the bridge between Central Asia and Eastern Europe, between the Caspian and the Mediterranean. It is the vital artery Beijing seeks to shield from disruption—a master plan to safeguard its future in an uncertain world.

3. Iran: The Gordian Knot in China’s Autonomy Network, a Bastion of Interdependence

Iran’s value to Chinese development is multifactorial—an entanglement of interests that makes it the Gordian knot in the Western containment strategy. Unraveling or cutting it would have seismic consequences for China’s autonomy project.

3.1. Non-Negotiable Energy Security: A Lifeline for the Asian Giant

Around 90% of Iranian oil is exported to China, and much of Beijing’s imported crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz. A stable, direct, and favorably priced supply from Iran is critical to China’s energy transition and autonomy strategy. China actively seeks to diversify energy sources, reducing dependence on the Middle East and the Strait of Malacca through infrastructure projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This is a matter of survival, not convenience—and China does not leave its fate in others’ hands.

3.2. The Belt and Road Initiative: A Development Model, Not a Debt Trap—the Antithesis of Subjugation

China has financed and developed railway routes linking Xi’an to Aprin (Iran), participates in digitalization projects (Digital Silk Road), green energy initiatives (Green Silk Road), and invests in free zones and ports. The 25-year strategic cooperation agreement signed in 2021 cements this bond. While the BRI is often framed by the West as a “debt trap diplomacy,” empirical research consistently disproves this narrative.

This accusation is, in reality, a geopolitical propaganda tool promoted by the U.S. State Department to hinder the BRI’s progress and tarnish China’s international image. It’s the old tactic of “slander sticks,” as predictable as it is ineffective against factual reality.

Financial distress in BRI partner countries stems from a combination of internal and external factors—none of which are directly attributable to China or the BRI. Chinese loans overwhelmingly fund productive infrastructure (transport, energy, water, education, health) aimed at increasing recipient countries’ productivity, enabling them to repay debt. Moreover, these loans often offer longer repayment terms and lower interest rates than Western commercial loans, which usually constitute the bulk of national debts. For instance, in Sri Lanka, only 10% of its debt is owed to China, while 80–90% is held by Western institutions or private bondholders like BlackRock and Ashmore, who own 47% of the debt.

As China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has noted, the BRI “has promoted the development of connectivity networks led by economic corridors, with major transport passages and information highways as the backbone, supported by railways, ports, pipelines, and covering land, sea, air, and cyberspace.” This is the antithesis of a “debt trap” and a reflection of the Confucian principle: “If I prosper and ensure my neighbor prospers too, we will all do better.” It is common sense—a galactic cluster bomb against the dual system of neoliberal and protectionist hegemony that governs the West with the United States at the helm.

3.3. Logistical Diversification: Breaking the Maritime Siege with Ingenuity and Patience

Rail trade between China and Europe accounts for less than 2% of global volume, but up to 6% in value due to its efficiency in critical sectors (automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals). Iran is a key link in that land corridor, irreplaceable by more fragile routes (Pakistan, Afghanistan). It is the land escape valve in case of maritime blockade—a demonstration of Chinese foresight that leaves nothing to chance.

3.4. Political Stability and Diplomatic Backing: Harmony as a Soft Power Strategy

China and Iran maintain a stable diplomatic relationship, with mutual support at the United Nations and in projecting a multilateral order. Tehran has backed Beijing on sensitive issues like Hong Kong and Xinjiang, while Beijing has criticized unilateral Western sanctions.
In its diplomacy, China promotes unity and international cooperation, offering new paths to crisis resolution under the principle of “building partnerships without forming alliances.” As Confucius said: “Do not do to others what you do not want done to you.” A simple yet devastating maxim for the logic of imposition—one that resonates across the Global South.

3.5. Alternative Financial System: Challenging Dollar Hegemony with Every Transaction

The use of the renminbi in bilateral trade, bypassing the SWIFT system, and banking cooperation enable China and Iran to operate outside the U.S. financial blockade. China is making significant progress in promoting cross-border use of the renminbi and building an interbank payment system (CIPS) as a strategic alternative to SWIFT. CIPS growth may accelerate with further Western sanctions, showing how U.S. coercion strengthens China’s alternative financial infrastructure. It is the boomerang effect of coercion—a blow that strengthens rather than weakens the adversary.

4. The Bully’s Move: Kicking the Board Faced with China’s Unreachable Superiority

Should Iran fall—become forcibly westernized or a failed state under indirect control—China would suffer multidimensional setbacks. It would lose sovereign logistical access to the Persian Gulf, be excluded from the main Eurasian land corridor, and its energy security would be subject to U.S.-aligned actors.

Furthermore, Iran’s fall would signal to third countries that the multipolar model cannot protect its allies. Chinese leadership would lose credibility in the Global South, weakening its autonomy project both in narrative and reality. Yet China’s millennia-forged wisdom and pragmatism have already considered this scenario. In Beijing, they know the only move left to the U.S. in the face of China’s rising, unparalleled dominance is to kick the board.

This is not about competing with China—it is about stopping China at all costs. President Trump, erratic and disruptive, has broken international and domestic rules alike, destabilizing the world in just months with tariffs and unpredictable discourse. He is, in the end, just the neighborhood thug shouting that he owns the ball and no one else gets to play. This is what kicking the board looks like. And while a direct U.S. intervention in Iran would indeed bring the severe consequences described here for China, the Chinese—guided by their long-term vision and eternal patience—likely have their countermoves well prepared.

China has developed policies and tools to counter threats like trade wars, including the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, the Anti-Monopoly Law, and the Unreliable Entity List. These allow it to impose tariffs, restrict exports of key minerals, and sanction U.S. firms. China’s economic resilience and vigor have surged in fields like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, new energy vehicles, and chip design. The rise of its electric vehicle industry—from scratch to global leadership—is a testament to strategic development. China’s EV industry has already outpaced its Western counterparts in every metric, including price, due to unmatched efficiency in labor, engineering, technology, and automation. It is a lesson in turning pressure into excellence.

China has responded to U.S. economic pressure with “quick, decisive, robust, and effective countermeasures,” including retaliatory actions showing courage, resolve, strength, and resilience. China’s history is full of lessons on overcoming economic blockades—such as those imposed by the U.S. in the 1950s—via early acquisition of strategic materials, rerouting shipments through neutral countries, and bartering. These historical lessons shape China’s modern contingency planning.

As President Xi Jinping stated, “China cannot develop without the world, and the world needs China for its prosperity.” Interdependence is a strength, not a weakness.

5. The Illusion of Victory: The Pyrrhic Benefits of Iran’s Collapse for the U.S.

For the U.S., indirectly taking Iran would be one of its greatest geostrategic victories since the Cold War. It would:

  • Restore the control ring from Turkey to Saudi Arabia
  • Fragment the China–Russia–Iran axis, weakening the BRI and Eurasian architecture
  • Reinforce the centrality of the dollar and SWIFT system
  • Revalidate the Western narrative as the only viable model for global order

All without direct military occupation—just through suffocation, destabilization, and induced institutional collapse. Yet the recent escalation, with direct U.S. attacks on Iran, shows the line between “suffocation” and “intervention” has dangerously blurred.

The China–Russia–Iran alliance—often dubbed an “axis” or “limitless partnership”—has shown growing coordination. Russia, for instance, relies on Iranian drones in Ukraine, and China supplies Russia with billions in oil, gas, and crucial wartime technologies.

This alignment, while fraught with its own frictions and divergent dreams, ties up U.S. military resources and destabilizes Washington’s allies—benefiting China indirectly. It’s a game of distractions, where the cost of victory may outweigh the gains, and the illusion of control becomes a trap for the hegemon.

Epilogue: The Chessboard of Systems and the Dragon’s Wisdom

Iran is not the final target. It is a knot. If untied, what unravels is not just a nation but an alternative vision for the world’s organization. This essay posits a logic of structural linkages: Iran’s stability supports China’s autonomy project, which in turn sustains the promise of a more balanced world.

Its collapse would not merely crown the hawks of Washington and Tel Aviv—it would warn the Global South that an alternative path to 21st-century integration, free from Atlantic subordination, may no longer be viable.

In this web, data, routes, reserves, and treaties are not technicalities. They are vectors in a systemic war already in full swing, though undeclared. The U.S. move to “kick the board” by escalating military and economic pressure on Iran may, paradoxically, accelerate the consolidation of a multipolar order. China’s wisdom—rooted in principles like “harmony without uniformity” (和而不同) and “a shared future for humanity”—lets it see beyond immediate chaos.

As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi put it, “Those with the biggest fists should not have the final say. And it is utterly unacceptable that some countries sit at the table while others are merely on the menu.”

With its emphasis on mutual benefit and cooperation, China is building a resilience that turns every blow into a catalyst for strength. China’s currently unmatched superiority is not built on imposition but on adaptation, innovation, efficiency, and offering a development model that resonates with the Global South’s aspirations.

The bully’s move, though loud and destructive, is a sign of desperation—not dominance. And the dragon, with its millennial patience, most likely has its next moves calculated for every piece that falls off the board.